As South Australia gets ready for its state election in the next month, political analysts are preparing for a change in the rules. The latest federal polling data reports dismal news for the Liberal Party, indicating their possible total dislodgment. Nevertheless, the unforeseen factor which totally captivates one’s attention has to do with the return of One Nation, which remains almost completely theoretical to this very day but still is a potential question mark that hovers above the voting scene.
A Coalition in Trouble
The long-standing Coalition parties are like objects of bleeding due to the support they seem to be losing. The latest surveys indicate that the Liberal plan is the main source of voters’ discontent. This stance is actually not a minor but rather an enormous force that could exert a massive impact on the political equilibrium of the state. The reasons behind such discontent are multiple, such as the economic crisis and the feeling that the state has failed to deal with major social issues. The elections expected this time are actually a judgement on and a pledge about their management of state affairs, and the first impressions are the decision will be strict.
The One Nation Puzzle
Even though the fall of the Liberals grabs the headlines, the question is how well One Nation will perform. Data from the latest polls gives the impression that a good number of votes are being shifted from the traditional coalition to the party led by the so-called Pauline Hanson. Such a change of direction is not merely a symbolic move, but it is a sign of a more profound reformation of the right-of-centre electors. One Nation’s agenda, which highlights nationalism and populist measures, is within the reach of those who feel neglected by the main political parties.
Nevertheless, as this study stands, it looks more like the story remains somewhat hypothetical. It is not easy to transform the federal polling statistics into the specific voter preferences in the state. South Australia is a state with its own political particularities and so the ground game of One Nation and the caliber of its candidates will be largely experimented as in the case of never before. The party needs to change the online milieu into the real votes, a treasure that has destroyed many a protest group.
The Stakes for South Australia
This holds huge implications. A powerful One Nation performance would make it impossible for either of the major parties to achieve a clear majority, resulting in a hung parliament and a minority government that will be unstable for the time being. Plus, it would bring a wave to the national political scene as the proof that the populist movements can be victorious in the long run at the state level. For the Liberals, the pressure does not only come from the necessity to limit damage but also from the need to avoid the permanent dislocation of their base.
The election day is drawing near and the marginal seats are the points of interest where all of this drama will go on. The outputs not only will let us know which party will rule South Australia for the next four years, but they may equally unveil whether the country’s political landscape has entered a new, unpredictable and enduring phase. At present, the only reliable fact is uncertainty.
Source: crikey
